Home price forecasts for 2024: mostly positive

Jan 29, 2024

Financial planning

Home price forecasts 2024
Home price forecasts 2024

Over 65% of Americans own homes making housing the largest and most important asset class in the country. Based on what we've seen, the 2024 housing price forecasts by industry experts range from from -1.7% to +4.1%.


Even if you don’t own a home, it’s helpful to know how the real estate market is doing since it’s intertwined with our economy. 


Real estate is a popular way to invest because it’s one of the few “investments” that also improves your quality of life (as a home), but it also has the potential to generate income (ie. rental properties), and can offer owners more control than stocks. 


Before we go through the 2024 home price forecasts, let's quickly review how 2023 went down. 


A look back at real estate in 2023


The first half of 2023 experienced a large drop in prices which you can see in the chart below by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED). The median home price in America was $479,500 at the end of 2022, but then it dropped down to $429,000 for the first quarter of 2023 and $418,500 for the second quarter. During those same time periods, the 30-year mortgage rate went from 6.42% to 6.32% and then up to 6.71% respectively.


FRED has yet to release its fourth quarter figures. But the general consensus seems to be that although the second half experienced an upswing, it wasn’t much to write home about. 


The National Association of Realtors (NAR) calculated home prices were up just under 1% last year, while other sources claim 2023 closed up between 2.9-3.2% (Sources: CBS News, Redfin, Freddie Mac, Fast Company 2024). Differences are due to different source inputs and calculation methodologies. 



Home price predictions for 2024


Now let’s take a look at what some real estate experts predict is in store for 2024. You can see there’s quite a spread from +5% expected by Goldman to -1.7% by Realtor.com. Combining the eight contributors’ forecasts together, the average comes out to +2.6%.



Redfin, which isn’t included in the above table, is calling for a 1% decrease for 2024, making them a second firm that believes a decline is in store this year. They write, “Home prices will still be out of reach for many Americans, but any break in the affordability crisis is a welcome development nonetheless.”


An overall positive outlook for housing in 2024


With the majority of housing price forecasts positive for 2024, most homeowners will likely experience their home value going up slightly or staying flat. That said, real estate performance can vary from one location to the next. So home prices in certain areas may do better or worse than others just like in any year. 


If you’re a current homeowner or are looking to buy your first home, keep in mind that local economics, demographics, supply vs demand, and even the occurrence of natural disasters-or lack thereof-can impact the home prices in your area.


Some reasons that some firms forecasted a positive year for housing in 2024 include: 

  • The Fed has signaled it will cut rates this year with expectations of between three-to-five cuts totally 0.75% to 1.25%

  • Decreasing mortgage rates make purchasing homes more appealing and affordable for buyers.

  • Pent-up demand is reaching a point where homebuyers no longer want to keep their lives on hold due to a wedding, new baby, death, or divorce. 

  • Much of the millennial generation (over 72 million Americans) is in family planning mode or already have kids and are ready to own their homes..

  • Many investors got richer last year thanks to a strong stock market making homeownership more realistic for more people in 2024.


For those who forecasted flat or negative growth, their reasoning is largely due affordability, inflation, and using a different median home price index.


If you’re interested in what some are predicting for the housing market beyond 2024, check out the below forecast model by Goldman Sachs. The firm expects home prices to rise by +3.8% in 2025, +4.9% in 2026, and +4.9% in 2027. 



It’s also helpful to know that in the grand scheme of things, the 42-year average for annual home appreciation is roughly 4.9%.



Use Plenty to start saving for a down payment


At Plenty we help modern couples get within reach of buying a home. We bring you and your partner together on money, helping you communicate better and achieve your financial goals sooner. Plenty is your easy, modern solution for managing money as a couple.


Word toward your goals, prioritize what matters most, and remember that every step forward counts. 


Sign up for an account with Plenty today.


- Team Plenty


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Plenty was founded to democratize access to financial products and tools that accelerate wealth building. Plenty Financial and affiliated entities. (“Plenty Financial”) provide a web, mobile, personal financial management and educational platform to consumers; some of these tools are freely accessible to all consumers, others require a fee-based subscription. Advisory services are provided in the form of software-first financial planning and investment advisory services for fee-based Subscribers. Plenty Financial RIA, LLC is an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor. All investments made are legally owned by you. Investing is inherently risky and Plenty does not guarantee positive performance. Investments are held in accounts at BNY Mellon | Pershings, the world's largest securities servicing company and are SIPC insured. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that the investment will provide positive performance over any period of time.


Brokerage services are provided by Atomic Brokerage LLC "Atomic Brokerage", member FINRA and SIPC. Clearing and custody services are provided by Brokerage firm BNY Mellon Pershing, member SIPC. Plenty Financial RIA, LLC has a relationship with Atomic Brokerage to manage and execute investments on behalf of customers. Subadvisory services are offered through Atomic Invest LLC ("Atomic Invest"), an SEC-registered investment advisor, member SIPC. Atomic Invest was formerly known as Helium Advisors LLC.


Return data used in the interactive tool are hypothetical performance data which contains inherent limitations and is not a substitute for actual investment returns derived from a live portfolio. There are numerous risk factors related to trading and markets which cannot be fully accounted for when depicting Hypothetical Performance. Consequently, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. THIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. This site/application has been prepared by Plenty and is not intended to be (and may not be relied on in any manner as) legal, tax, investment, accounting or other advice or as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of any investment product or any investment advisory service. The information contained in this site/application is superseded by, and is qualified in its entirety by, such offering materials. This site/application may contain proprietary, trade-secret, confidential and commercially sensitive information.


By accessing this site, you signify your agreement with and understanding of the following Terms of Use and Legal Information pertaining to both this site and any material in it. Plenty owns and maintains this site. No act of downloading or otherwise copying from this site will transfer title to any software or material at this site to you. Anything that you transmit to this site becomes the property of Plenty, may be used by Plenty for any lawful purpose, and is further subject to disclosure as deemed appropriate by Plenty, including to any legal or regulatory authority to which Plenty is subject. Plenty reserves all rights with respect to copyright ownership of all material at this site, and will enforce such rights to the full extent of the law.


Plenty was founded to democratize access to financial products and tools that accelerate wealth building. Plenty Financial and affiliated entities. (“Plenty Financial”) provide a web, mobile, personal financial management and educational platform to consumers; some of these tools are freely accessible to all consumers, others require a fee-based subscription. Advisory services are provided in the form of software-first financial planning and investment advisory services for fee-based Subscribers. Plenty Financial RIA, LLC is an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor. All investments made are legally owned by you. Investing is inherently risky and Plenty does not guarantee positive performance. Investments are held in accounts at BNY Mellon | Pershings, the world's largest securities servicing company and are SIPC insured. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that the investment will provide positive performance over any period of time.


Brokerage services are provided by Atomic Brokerage LLC "Atomic Brokerage", member FINRA and SIPC. Clearing and custody services are provided by Brokerage firm BNY Mellon Pershing, member SIPC. Plenty Financial RIA, LLC has a relationship with Atomic Brokerage to manage and execute investments on behalf of customers. Subadvisory services are offered through Atomic Invest LLC ("Atomic Invest"), an SEC-registered investment advisor, member SIPC. Atomic Invest was formerly known as Helium Advisors LLC.


Return data used in the interactive tool are hypothetical performance data which contains inherent limitations and is not a substitute for actual investment returns derived from a live portfolio. There are numerous risk factors related to trading and markets which cannot be fully accounted for when depicting Hypothetical Performance. Consequently, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. THIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS INVESTMENT ADVICE. This site/application has been prepared by Plenty and is not intended to be (and may not be relied on in any manner as) legal, tax, investment, accounting or other advice or as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of any investment product or any investment advisory service. The information contained in this site/application is superseded by, and is qualified in its entirety by, such offering materials. This site/application may contain proprietary, trade-secret, confidential and commercially sensitive information.


By accessing this site, you signify your agreement with and understanding of the following Terms of Use and Legal Information pertaining to both this site and any material in it. Plenty owns and maintains this site. No act of downloading or otherwise copying from this site will transfer title to any software or material at this site to you. Anything that you transmit to this site becomes the property of Plenty, may be used by Plenty for any lawful purpose, and is further subject to disclosure as deemed appropriate by Plenty, including to any legal or regulatory authority to which Plenty is subject. Plenty reserves all rights with respect to copyright ownership of all material at this site, and will enforce such rights to the full extent of the law.